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Trapwire Stratfor Email 29

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  1. Re: [alpha] Trapwire on Kabul Hotel Attack
  2.  
  3. Released on 2012-08-09 18:00 GMT
  4. Email-ID        83883
  5. Date    2011-06-29 16:16:29
  6. From    [email protected]
  7. To      [email protected], [email protected]
  8. List-Name       [email protected]
  9. Checking
  10.  
  11. Does GOOGLE earth have a picture of the stand off and/or gates?
  12.  
  13. We may be able to count 'em.
  14.  
  15. On 6/29/2011 9:14 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
  16.  
  17. This makes sense, they don't know anymore than we do on the targetting.
  18. But the other thing is to compare their capabilities with available
  19. targets. They may simply have not thought they could exploit a
  20. vulnerability at the Serena, so chose the next most high profile
  21. target.
  22.  
  23. Did not see this before I sent out last Insight questions, but I had
  24. seen this earlier insight-
  25.  
  26. Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
  27. gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).
  28.  
  29. Can we confirm that? Once they got to the gate, which I assume is
  30. farther away from the hotel at the bottom of a hill, how did they get
  31. through the next checkpoints?
  32.  
  33. On 6/29/11 8:22 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  34.  
  35. Two schools of thought on this at the moment:
  36.  
  37.  
  38.  
  39. 1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
  40. transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as
  41. much as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly
  42. communicated to their Taliban planners during the operation that they
  43. were going door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or
  44. not this was Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression
  45. they were head-hunting foreigners.
  46.  
  47.  
  48.  
  49. 2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs
  50. were staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true,
  51. there were some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could
  52. have been the Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still
  53. strong, and that no decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur
  54. without them. In other words, a pure intimidation op.
  55.  
  56.  
  57.  
  58.  
  59.  
  60. Mike, Who do you think the target was? Thanks
  61.  
  62. --
  63.  
  64. Sean Noonan
  65.  
  66. Tactical Analyst
  67.  
  68. Office: +1 512-279-9479
  69.  
  70. Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
  71.  
  72. Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
  73.  
  74. www.stratfor.com
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