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STRATFOR E-Mail #23: Re: Watch officers - Please read

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Re: Watch officers - Please read
Email-ID 5513222
Date 2008-02-05 20:06:05
From [email protected]
To [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
This is good stuff, Karen. Looking at this it is clear we need to do a
better job of sending stuff to GV alerts - it makes it to OS (meaning
monitors are doing their jobs) but not to gvalerts (shame on us). I
commented on three below, but the point remains that we're missing GV-able
items. The simplest solution is probably just WOs taking more time to
become familiar with the client list so that we recognize GV items quickly
when we're in a hurry.
I think the breakdown of misses is very helpful. Perhaps as Orit suggested
we should do this regularly - evaluate the previous shift's work each
shift? This would be brutal, but it would also be a good exercise (both
for the person being evaluated and the person doing the evaluating).
Looking back when there is more time to consider each item, it is easier
to see my mistakes and as such I'm much less likely to make them again.
The evaluations would be up for comment by any of the WOs, which would
help us improve as well. I'll (sheepishly) offer my shift today as the
first for evaluation if Karen thinks she'll have time to grade me tonight.
Karen, if you do, go for it - it's nighttime in Orit-land so we probably
won't hear from her for several more hours. Probably we would only need to
do this for a week more or less, but it wouldn't have to be a permanent
fixture as it could become quite time-consuming.
Here's to more effective WOs!
Orit Gal-Nur wrote:
These graphs definitely help us see the layout of our coverage. It's
also something we can do every two weeks to monitor AOR coverage from
the OS and Alerts lists. But we also need to consider that some of the
AORs will have more reppable items, such as the Middle East and Europe.
Agree on this. Latam is important for mining/lng/oil issues for clients,
but these don't always make it to reps.
One side note about the list you compiled below, is it possible that my
OS box differs from yours? In my thunderbird, one item on the list
below was forwarded to alerts, and a few others did not show up at all
in OS (I don't delete anything from OS).
While a crucial aspect of our job is speed, sometimes it's hard to
balance this with accuracy. As Karen mentioned, the double and triple
fact checking is mandatory, but it can slow us in tackling the OS in a
timely manner. Sometimes during the quick decision making in whether to
rep or not, I pass a potential rep only to rep it later after reading
another article and either seeing it a different perspective or with
just different wording. Agreed on this, too. We should be fast, but we
should also be accurate. The solution is to get better at both.
We need to have exercises that allow us to look critically at our work.
One might be the graph below, done on a consistent basis, to see how our
sweeping and repping is covered. Another exercise could be to compare
the time frames from certain days as Karen did, giving us each a chance
to analyze the lists and eachothers' repping mistakes. This type of
feedback and learning will spread to all aspects of the job and
influence all our decision making.
Thanks Karen, this is a good start.
Karen Hooper wrote:
Hi all,
It is clear that we need more accountability and discussion of the
principles that drive Watch Officer decision-making at Stratfor. Below
is my own evaluation of the relationship between the OS list and the
Alerts list between 5 am cst and 1 pm cst Feb. 4. During that time,
there were a total of 24 items sent to the alerts list and 20 items
sent to the gvalerts list. There were only three items sent to the GV
alerts list between 7 am CST and 8 pm CST yesterday, which is a
problem.
The alerts list is closer to where it ought to be, but we may have
missed a few items that should at the very least be brought to the
attention of the company. We are also just not as fast as we could be.
I know that I sometimes get caught up in sweeping, consulting with
monitors and analysts, and double and triple checking things before i
rep them, which puts me in a position where I've not forwarded alert
items the list as fast as I ought to. This is something we all need to
be acutely aware of -- we have to be reactive, and we must err on the
side of overreaction.
At the very bottom of this email is a graph showing our sitrepping
patterns over the last two weeks. The data only include weekdays, and
do double-count reps that qualify for more than one AOR. I'm not sure
what is to be learned from it, except our sitrep coverage of Latin
America is decidedly less than awesome and our coverage of East Asia
is spotty. Latin America is pretty internally focused right now, but
we need at the very least to be picking up the cartel violence. I
will take the lead on talking to our two monitors who touch on latam
and putting together some tactical guidance for WOs and Monitors.
To date, we've been really focused on the monitors, getting them up to
speed, working out scheduling, etc. It's definitely time that we took
a look at our own performance, and we need to be thinking about ways
that we can improve our consistency, speed and thoroughness. Reva has
pointed out the need to be more careful in our highlighting process,
which is something she sees easily, first thing in the morning. But we
are the only ones who can easily go through the OS list -- and we
should do so in with the aim of keeping each other honest.
By controlling the flow of information, the watch officers hold the
family jewels of the company. This will become increasingly true, and
it's our job to make the right call, every time.
Below is the result of a sample i took from 5 am CST to 1 pm CST. The
lists below are of items that probably should have been sent to alerts
or GValerts:
GV:
[OS] TURKEY/ENERGY - Ankara delays natural gas tender for March 14
[OS] ENERGY - Trans-Black Sea pipeline studies under way
[OS] UAE/IB - Abu Dhabi plans investment of $280 bln
[OS] KUWAIT/KSA/ENERGY - Kuwait, Saudi to increase Neutral Zone oil
capacity
[OS] LITHUANIA/POLAND/SWEDEN/ENERGY - Seimas passes nuclear bill I may
be overlooking something, but I don't see that this one should have
been GVd.
[OS] NORWAY/ENERGY - Turbine fire shuts down 20, 000 barrel per day
Njord A oil platform off Norwa
[OS] RUSSIA/SOMALIA/CT - Pirates seize Russians, British man off
Somalia (More details) A similar article was sent to gvalerts prior to
this one. But it raised a question in my mind - what kinds of updates
do we need for GV items? So I asked Joe. He says there's no need to
update a story unless it changes the fundamentals or a briefer
contacts the WO to say it is important enough to a client to warrant
tracking more minute changes.
[OS] ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA/IB - Angolan mining potential in focus in
South Africa I don't think this one needed to be sent to GValerts. The
only new information is that a presentation is being given.
S2 - NIGERIA/CT - Rebels claim Nigerian oil delta attack
[OS] BRAZIL/TURKEY/ENERGY/IB - Petrobras, Turkiye Petrolleri Find
Black Sea Oil, Referans Says
[OS] CHINA/IB - Copper Rises as Costs May Curb China's Output; Nickel
Declines
[OS] SERBIA/US/PP/IB - Serbia, US Steel sign environmental protection
deal
[OS] COLOMBIA/ENERGY - Colombia To Auction Rights To Seek Oil In 151
Blocks In 2008
[OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
With PDVSA
[OS] IB - Airbus Completes First Civil Aircraft Test Flight With
Alternative Fuel
Alerts:
[OS] IRAQ/IRAN/ENERGY - Baghdad protests against Iranian violations of
Iraqi oilfields
[OS] JAPAN/CHINA/IB - Japan sends mission to China over food poisoning
incidents
[OS] CHAD/CT/UN - EU Chad mission suspended but will go ahead-Solana
[OS] US/MIL/CT- U.S. Citizen in Singapore Accused of Selling Military
Hardware to Iran [It was too old to rep, but it should have been sent
out]
[OS] IB - White House Budget Request
[OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
With PDVSA
[OS] ITALY - Berlusconi Rejects Government as Early Election Looms
Other issues:
[OS] EGYPT/GAZA/CT - Palestinian gunfire wounds 2 Egyptian policemen
[this was sent to the OS list three times, it was repped over an hour
after it was first sent to the list]
[OS] COLOMBIA/CT - Colombians in anti-Farc protests [i repped this
later, when the numbers were made clear (half a million protesters),
but it was still pretty impt when sent out at the beginning of the
day]
[OS] SPAIN/CT - Spanish police arrest Basque separatists [This was
repped, but not until an hour after it was sent to the OS list]
INDIA/MALAYSIA - India, Malaysia seeking ways to join hands in
fighting terror [this should have been resent to the OS list with a
CT tag]
Sitrepping by AOR over the past two weeks:
Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.
4 1 31 30 29 28 25 24 23 22 21
East 3 6 5 7 3 16 4 3 8 6 8
Asia
Middle 15 15 7 8 8 17 15 11 17 14 12
East
Latin 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 4 6
America
South 6 9 11 4 5 6 11 6 11 10 5
Asia
Africa 6 8 6 2 5 1 5 1 7 3 6
Europe 6 7 4 8 6 3 16 9 7 9 8
FSU 3 5 6 7 6 9 9 11 7 6 4
--
Orit Gal-Nur
Watch Officer
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
[email protected]
--
Thomas Davison
Watch Officer
Stratfor
(512) 366-0196

create a new version of this paste RAW Paste Data

Re: Watch officers - Please read
Email-ID 	5513222
Date 	2008-02-05 20:06:05
From 	davison@stratfor.com
To 	hooper@stratfor.com, watchofficer@stratfor.com, orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com
This is good stuff, Karen. Looking at this it is clear we need to do a
better job of sending stuff to GV alerts - it makes it to OS (meaning
monitors are doing their jobs) but not to gvalerts (shame on us). I
commented on three below, but the point remains that we're missing GV-able
items. The simplest solution is probably just WOs taking more time to
become familiar with the client list so that we recognize GV items quickly
when we're in a hurry.

I think the breakdown of misses is very helpful. Perhaps as Orit suggested
we should do this regularly - evaluate the previous shift's work each
shift? This would be brutal, but it would also be a good exercise (both
for the person being evaluated and the person doing the evaluating).
Looking back when there is more time to consider each item, it is easier
to see my mistakes and as such I'm much less likely to make them again.
The evaluations would be up for comment by any of the WOs, which would
help us improve as well. I'll (sheepishly) offer my shift today as the
first for evaluation if Karen thinks she'll have time to grade me tonight.
Karen, if you do, go for it - it's nighttime in Orit-land so we probably
won't hear from her for several more hours. Probably we would only need to
do this for a week more or less, but it wouldn't have to be a permanent
fixture as it could become quite time-consuming.

Here's to more effective WOs!
Orit Gal-Nur wrote:

These graphs definitely help us see the layout of our coverage. It's
also something we can do every two weeks to monitor AOR coverage from
the OS and Alerts lists. But we also need to consider that some of the
AORs will have more reppable items, such as the Middle East and Europe.
Agree on this. Latam is important for mining/lng/oil issues for clients,
but these don't always make it to reps.
One side note about the list you compiled below, is it possible that my
OS box differs from yours? In my thunderbird, one item on the list
below was forwarded to alerts, and a few others did not show up at all
in OS (I don't delete anything from OS).
While a crucial aspect of our job is speed, sometimes it's hard to
balance this with accuracy. As Karen mentioned, the double and triple
fact checking is mandatory, but it can slow us in tackling the OS in a
timely manner. Sometimes during the quick decision making in whether to
rep or not, I pass a potential rep only to rep it later after reading
another article and either seeing it a different perspective or with
just different wording. Agreed on this, too. We should be fast, but we
should also be accurate. The solution is to get better at both.
We need to have exercises that allow us to look critically at our work.
One might be the graph below, done on a consistent basis, to see how our
sweeping and repping is covered. Another exercise could be to compare
the time frames from certain days as Karen did, giving us each a chance
to analyze the lists and eachothers' repping mistakes. This type of
feedback and learning will spread to all aspects of the job and
influence all our decision making.
Thanks Karen, this is a good start.

Karen Hooper wrote:

Hi all,

It is clear that we need more accountability and discussion of the
principles that drive Watch Officer decision-making at Stratfor. Below
is my own evaluation of the relationship between the OS list and the
Alerts list between 5 am cst and 1 pm cst Feb. 4. During that time,
there were a total of 24 items sent to the alerts list and 20 items
sent to the gvalerts list. There were only three items sent to the GV
alerts list between 7 am CST and 8 pm CST yesterday, which is a
problem.

The alerts list is closer to where it ought to be, but we may have
missed a few items that should at the very least be brought to the
attention of the company. We are also just not as fast as we could be.
I know that I sometimes get caught up in sweeping, consulting with
monitors and analysts, and double and triple checking things before i
rep them, which puts me in a position where I've not forwarded alert
items the list as fast as I ought to. This is something we all need to
be acutely aware of -- we have to be reactive, and we must err on the
side of overreaction.

At the very bottom of this email is a graph showing our sitrepping
patterns over the last two weeks. The data only include weekdays, and
do double-count reps that qualify for more than one AOR. I'm not sure
what is to be learned from it, except our sitrep coverage of Latin
America is decidedly less than awesome and our coverage of East Asia
is spotty. Latin America is pretty internally focused right now, but
we need at the very least to be picking up the cartel violence. I
will take the lead on talking to our two monitors who touch on latam
and putting together some tactical guidance for WOs and Monitors.

To date, we've been really focused on the monitors, getting them up to
speed, working out scheduling, etc. It's definitely time that we took
a look at our own performance, and we need to be thinking about ways
that we can improve our consistency, speed and thoroughness. Reva has
pointed out the need to be more careful in our highlighting process,
which is something she sees easily, first thing in the morning. But we
are the only ones who can easily go through the OS list -- and we
should do so in with the aim of keeping each other honest.

By controlling the flow of information, the watch officers hold the
family jewels of the company. This will become increasingly true, and
it's our job to make the right call, every time.

Below is the result of a sample i took from 5 am CST to 1 pm CST. The
lists below are of items that probably should have been sent to alerts
or GValerts:

GV:
[OS] TURKEY/ENERGY - Ankara delays natural gas tender for March 14
[OS] ENERGY - Trans-Black Sea pipeline studies under way
[OS] UAE/IB - Abu Dhabi plans investment of $280 bln
[OS] KUWAIT/KSA/ENERGY - Kuwait, Saudi to increase Neutral Zone oil
capacity
[OS] LITHUANIA/POLAND/SWEDEN/ENERGY - Seimas passes nuclear bill I may
be overlooking something, but I don't see that this one should have
been GVd.
[OS] NORWAY/ENERGY - Turbine fire shuts down 20, 000 barrel per day
Njord A oil platform off Norwa
[OS] RUSSIA/SOMALIA/CT - Pirates seize Russians, British man off
Somalia (More details) A similar article was sent to gvalerts prior to
this one. But it raised a question in my mind - what kinds of updates
do we need for GV items? So I asked Joe. He says there's no need to
update a story unless it changes the fundamentals or a briefer
contacts the WO to say it is important enough to a client to warrant
tracking more minute changes.
[OS] ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA/IB - Angolan mining potential in focus in
South Africa I don't think this one needed to be sent to GValerts. The
only new information is that a presentation is being given.
S2 - NIGERIA/CT - Rebels claim Nigerian oil delta attack
[OS] BRAZIL/TURKEY/ENERGY/IB - Petrobras, Turkiye Petrolleri Find
Black Sea Oil, Referans Says
[OS] CHINA/IB - Copper Rises as Costs May Curb China's Output; Nickel
Declines
[OS] SERBIA/US/PP/IB - Serbia, US Steel sign environmental protection
deal
[OS] COLOMBIA/ENERGY - Colombia To Auction Rights To Seek Oil In 151
Blocks In 2008
[OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
With PDVSA
[OS] IB - Airbus Completes First Civil Aircraft Test Flight With
Alternative Fuel

Alerts:
[OS] IRAQ/IRAN/ENERGY - Baghdad protests against Iranian violations of
Iraqi oilfields
[OS] JAPAN/CHINA/IB - Japan sends mission to China over food poisoning
incidents
[OS] CHAD/CT/UN - EU Chad mission suspended but will go ahead-Solana
[OS] US/MIL/CT- U.S. Citizen in Singapore Accused of Selling Military
Hardware to Iran [It was too old to rep, but it should have been sent
out]
[OS] IB - White House Budget Request
[OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
With PDVSA
[OS] ITALY - Berlusconi Rejects Government as Early Election Looms

Other issues:
[OS] EGYPT/GAZA/CT - Palestinian gunfire wounds 2 Egyptian policemen
[this was sent to the OS list three times, it was repped over an hour
after it was first sent to the list]
[OS] COLOMBIA/CT - Colombians in anti-Farc protests [i repped this
later, when the numbers were made clear (half a million protesters),
but it was still pretty impt when sent out at the beginning of the
day]
[OS] SPAIN/CT - Spanish police arrest Basque separatists [This was
repped, but not until an hour after it was sent to the OS list]
INDIA/MALAYSIA - India, Malaysia seeking ways to join hands in
fighting terror [this should have been resent to the OS list with a
CT tag]

Sitrepping by AOR over the past two weeks:

Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.
4 1 31 30 29 28 25 24 23 22 21
East 3 6 5 7 3 16 4 3 8 6 8
Asia
Middle 15 15 7 8 8 17 15 11 17 14 12
East
Latin 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 4 6
America
South 6 9 11 4 5 6 11 6 11 10 5
Asia
Africa 6 8 6 2 5 1 5 1 7 3 6
Europe 6 7 4 8 6 3 16 9 7 9 8
FSU 3 5 6 7 6 9 9 11 7 6 4

--
Orit Gal-Nur
Watch Officer
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com



--
Thomas Davison
Watch Officer
Stratfor
(512) 366-0196

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