STRATFOR E-Mail #13: Re: [alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

Re: [alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE - INSIGHT - ISRAEL - Convo with an IDF intel officer - IL200

Email-ID        211021

Date    2011-12-17 20:01:41

From    [email protected]

To      [email protected]

List-Name       [email protected]

sorry IL200 not IS

 

On 12/17/11 12:43 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

 

This is per Jenn's request.

 

On 12/15/11 10:30 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

 

Source is an old friend from college who is now a major in IDF

intelligence. Had not seen one another in years. Very secretive of

what they do; seemed pretty suspicious about what exactly I was doing

in Israel. Nothing too groundbreaking, just some interesting

observations.

 

- When I used the term "Arab Spring" early on in our conversation, I

was reprimanded. "Don't call it the Arab Spring. We call it 'The

Upheaval' where I work." When I tried to explain that we typically

scoff at calling it the Arab Spring as well, I was cut off, so that I

could hear another lecture about how horrible Arabs were. Israelis

aren't the nicest people most of the time.

 

- Opsec at IDI (Israel Defense Intelligence) seems pretty extreme. If

you try to email this person, you don't hear back for a month, minimum

- usually even longer. Reason is because no websites that have

passwords are allowed at work. Emails for internal comms only.

 

- Source is in D.C. frequently for meetings with DIA. When I asked if

they are often trained by the Americans, the response was a smirk and,

"We like to think we don't need the Americans to train us." IDI,

source said, is "more creative" than American counterparts. The way

they work sounded similar in philosophy to STRATFOR, actually. For

example, there is a specific officer who is referred to as the

"Devil's advocate" at the IDI offices. This person is allowed to

challenge any random paper on any topic, produced by someone of any

rank. If a paper is written that says, hypothetically, that Bashar

will fall in three weeks, the Devil's advocate can then say, "Okay,

I'm challenging this assertion. Now, I want you to write the exact

opposite argument and play out the logic." Source did not deny that

they, too, can fall prey to groupthink like any other intelligence

body, but was a firm believe that this was a good way to avoid it.

 

- "Where are the moderates in the Muslim world?" That was the theme of

the conversation on source's end. If you listen to this person, you

come away with the notion that the Israelis seem extremely unnerved

about the future of the region, with the primary focus being on the

Iranian threat. (Again, this is not groundbreaking insight.)

 

- Source openly said that none of this shit would be happening right

now had Obama not abandoned Mubarak like he did. When I later

criticized Bush for shattering the balance of power in the PG, source

shot back, "Well what about Obama?" I said that Obama had maintained

the same FP as Bush, a claim with which the source agreed. And yet the

source loves Bush's policies and hates Obama's. Israelis are not a fan

of Barack.

 

- Because Obama abandoned Mubarak, source lamented the fact that Egypt

was no longer the leader of the Arab world. This does not mean source

believes the MB is on the verge of completely taking power in Egypt -

(I specifically asked if that was the belief the IDI holds) - but it

does mean that there is a steep drop in faith that the SCAF has

ability to maintain the status quo. Overall I found the message on

Egypt a bit confusing.

 

- Part of the reason that the message was confused message imo is

because the source openly admits that in the IDI, people have a

singular focus on the outside world. Like STRATFOR, they are largely

disconnected with domestic politics. So the Syria people identify with

Syria, the Hezbollah people will jokingly say stuff like, "I am in

Hezbollah" when you ask them their AOR, etc.

 

- The IDI is very much focused on the Shiite crest ranging from Iran

to Lebanon. Iran is the primary threat in the world today. Source was

heavily concerned with how Yemen plays into this as well; much moreso

than what we talk about. "AQAP is in control of south fucking Yemen,

for God's sake." Source says they jokingly refer to AQAP as "AQHP"

after the HP printer bombs that got seized on those DHL flights a few

years back.

 

- The IDI is operating on the assumption that Yemen will be completely

out of water in eight years. I asked if this was their own assessment

and source said, "No, it's public information. You can find it on

Wikipedia." I think it took about one second for the source to realize

retarded that sounded, citing Wikipedia when you're a major at the

IDI, and so immediately it was amended with, "there have been studies

published." Fear about Yemen running out of water is mass migrations

into KSA, which Iran could exploit.

 

- When I said that there were people in the Israeli

government/military/intel community who reads STRATFOR, source said,

"I can check on that for you." Thanks.